Jeremy M. Gernand, PhD, CSP, CRE
Associate Professor of Environmental Health and Safety Engineering
John and Willie Leone Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering
College of Earth and Mineral Sciences
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Home Team Research Courses Publications Consulting Blog Posts Contact

Cell Phones causing cancer would be really dramatic

I think people underestimate how earth shattering a conclusion that non-ionizing radiation causes cancer would be | California Warns People to Limit Exposure to Cellphones. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwg-uPrzM

I miss fonio

I miss fonio. http://slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/roads/2017/11/fonio_could_this_forgotten_west_african_grain_be_the_world_s_next_trendy.html… via @slate

Drone Risks for Passenger Aircraft

Here’s How Drones Do (and Don’t) Threaten Passenger Aircraft https://scientificamerican.com/article/here-rsquo-s-how-drones-do-and-don-rsquo-t-threaten-passenger-aircraft/?wt.mc=SA_Twitter-Share… via @sciam

Changes in bus stop location can reduce pollution exposure

Relocating bus stops 120 ft away from intersections would cut riders’ pollution exposure, study finds: Relocating bus stops would cut riders’ pollution exposure, study finds (phys.org)

Safety and Security doesn’t have to be Unconfortable

How Anti-Terrorism Design Can Also Make Cities More Livable http://53eig.ht/2zEkAQY

It’s too hard to read scientific papers

Scientific Papers Are Getting Less Readable – Neuroskeptic | Scientific Papers Are Getting Less Readable | Discover Magazine

Planned Inventions Regularly Happen

Engineers regularly embrace the idea of the planned invention (e.g., by this future date we will have created a tech. sol’n for this prob.)

(1) TED Talks on X: ““Innovation is not just a matter of luck. It’s possible to have a strategy of innovation.” https://t.co/orTTPGqZAA” / X

What Social Discounting Does to Risk Planning

The arcane, fascinating academic debate that helps explain why we didn’t prepare for Harvey. http://slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/09/how_social_discounting_helps_explain_why_we_don_t_prepare_for_disasters.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_top… via @slate

Risk and Probability with 500-year Events

A lot of confusion about what a “500-year event” means in relation to #Harvey, and since I evaluate #Risks, and am from #Dickinson , TX …

A 500-year event only means it has been assessed a probability of 0.2% of happening for that location in a year (1% for a 100-yr event) …

When you start stacking events (multiple years or multiple areas) then the probability can get much higher …

See this graph of cumulative probabilities of experiencing such an event with multiple independent* events (*probably a bad assumption) …

graph of the probability of experiencing a 100-year or 500-year event as the number of consecutive years increases

(again assuming independence) over a 30-year mortgage, a house would have a 5.8% probability of seeing a 500-yr event (26% of 100-yr event)

Over 50 regions with the same risk, there would be a 9.5% probability of one of them seeing a 500-yr event in a yr (39.4% for 100-yr event)

Over a 79 year lifetime, there is a 14.6% probability of seeing a 500-year event (54.8% of 100-yr event) [again assuming independence] …

*Independence* means that no event informs us on the probability of any other event (i.e. things are not changing)

So, independence assumes no climate change, no increase in flooding due to development, etc. (i.e. prob not true, but makes math easier)

Hurricane Harvey vs Storm of 1900

I’m here today because my great grandfather, at the age of ~8, survived the great storm of 1900 in Galveston, Texas.

As terrible as Harvey is, the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was much, much worse: http://on.forbes.com/60118IzbU

Birthday Cakes and Bacteria

Here’s how much bacteria you spew on the cake while blowing out birthday candles. – Seriously, Science? http://bit.ly/2vwGwvl

Null Results Need to be Published More

A surprising amount of medical research isn’t made public. That’s dangerous. https://vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/8/1/16012946/clinical-trial-research-public-transparency?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter… via @voxdotcom

Normalized Speeding Kills Too Many People

Miles traveled and traffic deaths up in recent yrs | U.S. traffic death increase caused by speeding, says new study https://curbed.com/2017/7/28/16051780/us-traffic-death-speeding-statistics-speeding

“Unlike other factors like alcohol or unbelted riders, speeding has few neg. social consequences associated with it”

“There is not strong evidence that the 85th percentile speed limit standard equates with the lowest crash rate”

“Though cities try to make streets safer, changes are difficult to implement as drivers complain that solutions extend commute times”

Brain Injury and Football

Prob just the beginning of a new chapter of knowledge | Study: CTE Found In Nearly All Donated NFL Player Brains https://n.pr/2uVnpdg

Ethically do NFL players believe they understand and are fairly compensated for this risk to their health and safety?

What other professions and activities may put people at risk of this kind of damage to the brain?