I get and agree with the concern here, but this idea: “You can’t cross-examine an algorithm…. It’s a black box.” is false. To effectively use ML/AI, we have to do this, and we can, though it requires careful work. | https://vox.com/recode/2019/10/20/20921354/ai-algorithms-essay-writing
Why governments are bad at facing catastrophic risks — and how they could get better https://vox.com/future-perfect/2019/8/23/20828408/global-catastrophic-risks-national-policy?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter… via @voxdotcom
Dust emissions from the desert connected with increased infant mortality | https://vox.com/future-perfect/2019/8/6/20747576/air-pollution-dust-nber-study-child-deaths
The state of aviation safety is more complex than “too complex” | https://vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/12/18261985/trump-boeing-737-max-8-automation-tweet-debunked
‘Fundamental Shift’ Needed To Protect Miners From Deadly Black Lung https://n.pr/2N6oO7a
Oil and gas wastewater as dust suppressant less than ideal | via @penn_statehttp://news.psu.edu/story/523652/2018/05/30/research/oil-and-gas-wastewater-dust-suppressant-less-ideal
Humans are bad at understanding risk. California’s coffee-may-cause-cancer signs won’t help: https://slate.com/technology/2018/05/californias-coffee-may-cause-cancer-signs-may-hurt-more-than-they-help.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru… via @slate
The Florida bridge collapse is a tragic result of a building ethos that could come to your town: https://slate.com/business/2018/03/the-florida-bridge-collapse-shows-how-accelerated-bridge-construction-can-go-wrong.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru… via @slate
As Bodies Are Pulled From Rubble, Questions Mount About Miami Bridge. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwltG7-Dc
Unfortunate that we are watching a solved human health problem become unsolved. https://t.co/mA5xpoNZE2
I think people underestimate how earth shattering a conclusion that non-ionizing radiation causes cancer would be | California Warns People to Limit Exposure to Cellphones. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwg-uPrzM
Here’s How Drones Do (and Don’t) Threaten Passenger Aircraft https://scientificamerican.com/article/here-rsquo-s-how-drones-do-and-don-rsquo-t-threaten-passenger-aircraft/?wt.mc=SA_Twitter-Share… via @sciam
Relocating bus stops 120 ft away from intersections would cut riders’ pollution exposure, study finds: Relocating bus stops would cut riders’ pollution exposure, study finds (phys.org)
How Anti-Terrorism Design Can Also Make Cities More Livable http://53eig.ht/2zEkAQY
Scientific Papers Are Getting Less Readable – Neuroskeptic | Scientific Papers Are Getting Less Readable | Discover Magazine
Engineers regularly embrace the idea of the planned invention (e.g., by this future date we will have created a tech. sol’n for this prob.)
The arcane, fascinating academic debate that helps explain why we didn’t prepare for Harvey. http://slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/09/how_social_discounting_helps_explain_why_we_don_t_prepare_for_disasters.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_top… via @slate
A lot of confusion about what a “500-year event” means in relation to #Harvey, and since I evaluate #Risks, and am from #Dickinson , TX …
A 500-year event only means it has been assessed a probability of 0.2% of happening for that location in a year (1% for a 100-yr event) …
When you start stacking events (multiple years or multiple areas) then the probability can get much higher …
See this graph of cumulative probabilities of experiencing such an event with multiple independent* events (*probably a bad assumption) …
(again assuming independence) over a 30-year mortgage, a house would have a 5.8% probability of seeing a 500-yr event (26% of 100-yr event)
Over 50 regions with the same risk, there would be a 9.5% probability of one of them seeing a 500-yr event in a yr (39.4% for 100-yr event)
Over a 79 year lifetime, there is a 14.6% probability of seeing a 500-year event (54.8% of 100-yr event) [again assuming independence] …
*Independence* means that no event informs us on the probability of any other event (i.e. things are not changing)
So, independence assumes no climate change, no increase in flooding due to development, etc. (i.e. prob not true, but makes math easier)